Macro-economic outlook on the European transport industry

The Turbulent Twenties

Transport at sea
European transport and logistics firms are operating in an environment shaped by successive shocks and structural change. Geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, persistent inflation, and labour scarcity have become the new operating reality.

In this report by our Industry experts, you get a clear view of the macro-economic forces at play and the strategic trade-offs ahead. We cut through the noise and give you a clear overview of the current trends and the biggest strategic shifts in the Manufacturing, Transport & Logistics sector.
 
 

What’s in the report

Here’s a short recap of the insights you can find in the report.

The macro-economic landscape 

Trade intensity has plateaued with the so-called ‘slowbalisation’, GDP growth remains modest, and foreign direct investment is volatile. For transport firms, this signals a shift from expansion-driven growth to value creation through productivity and efficiency gains. 

Disruption and uncertainty

The current period is defined not by the presence of shocks, but by their unpredictability. We examine how to distinguish between operational, adaptive, and navigational responses to disruption. We also highlight the 4 main drivers affecting the current and future state of this shifting market. 

Three strategic shifts

Finally, we outline three critical pivots for transport leaders:  

  • from organisational silos to ecosystem coordination, 
  • from efficiency-first to resilience-driven design, 
  • from broad digitisation to capital-disciplined innovation. 

The defining challenge for European transport in the 2020s is not navigating a single crisis. It is operating in an environment where structural pressure is persistent and uncertainty is the norm. 

Do you have any questions on the topics discussed in this report? Wondering what the impact could be for your company?

Feel free to contact Indra Vonck, BDO Industry Leader in Manufacturing, Transport & Logistics.